An opportunity to join in on https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer
Eliezer has this at >16%; Paul at <8%.
Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

This market resolves to YES in the event that ANY of the following outlets confirm that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current president of Ukraine, was killed or captured by Russian military forces before April 20th 2022 Eastern Time: Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, or the Washington Post.

The media outlet must not retract the claim within 2 hours. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2025. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.

There's been a large scale conflict in the West Bank with significant human casualties (>15 dead) and covered in international media.

Feb 12, 6:35pm: @Duncan good question. Alright, I'll clarify. 15 or more dead in a single day. 

It seems awful to be "making bets" on this stuff...but it's more like making best on probable futures, and we need a way to define a conflict so it can be assessed as happening or not. So, this is what we have so far.

Feb 12, 6:35pm: Single 24 hour period.

Tags: #ManticMarkets
Jan 7, 1:10pm: We changed the name of our platform to Manifold Markets, but this won't effect how we resolve the market (i.e. the question will still resolve true if Manifold Markets has over $1M in revenue by 2023). #ManifoldMarkets

This market immediately resolves to YES if any any country acceeds to membership of NATO in 2022. If not, it will resolve to NO at the end of 2022. Applications are not sufficient, nor "Partnership for Peace", this market will track actual membership of NATO.

From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022

Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.



Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

This market resolves yes if open markets are converted from DPM to CPMM during 2022. Markets that are not converted because they are closed or closing soon do not count against this.

This market resolves no if no markets are converted in 2022.

If some but not all open markets are converted, for example based on size, popularity, pool, etc, this market resolves 50%.

Mar 24, 9:56pm: this market will still resolve yes if markets are closed during conversion for technical reasons.

Apr 5, 5:17pm: this market resolves 50% if yes/no markets are converted and free response markets are not, based on "some but not all" clause above.

The question is resolved YES if either:
1. Ukraine reaches a peace agreement or
2. Russia withdraws because it is losing the battle (either on the front line or because of sanctions).
3. Fighting stops for any another reason (catchall in case the other two points don't suffice).

Feb 25, 9:20pm: Following orrukje's comments.
- If it seems like a long-term occupation ala Crimea, then I will deem this resolved YES. However, if there is a widespread insurgency, then it will be resolved NO.

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